Economic Insights · GTA · Aug 23, 2026
Support and pressure are arriving from different directions
The Bank of Canada's policy rate is 2.25%, inside the bank's neutral range. Jobs & confidence is providing support, while rates & affordability remains a headwind.
Bank of Canada policy rate
2.25%
Held since Oct 29, 2025 · down from a 5.00% peak
Tick marks the 2.00% twenty-year average for the Bank’s target rate.
Inside the Bank's neutral range.
Support and pressure are arriving from different directions
Jobs & confidence is providing support, while rates & affordability remains a headwind.
Watch next
Interest rate decision
Bank of Canada · Sep 2, 2026
Fixed borrowing costs have been climbing
GoC 5-Year Bond Yield — what fixed rates are priced from
Five-year government yields, which anchor fixed mortgage pricing, have moved higher.
Bank of Canada · Aug 2026
Canadian CPI Inflation — what the Bank watches before it moves
Statistics Canada · Jul 2026
More people across the Toronto region are working
Employment (Toronto CMA)
Tailwind3.77M
Employment rose from its previous reading; qualifying income tends to follow employment.
Statistics Canada · Jul 2026
Net Interprovincial Migration (Ontario)
Blue means people arriving, orange means people leaving.
Statistics Canada · Jan 2026
Fewer homes are entering construction
STARTS
Supply arriving in ~2029
COMPLETIONS
Supply arriving now
Starts and completions are the same pipeline years apart: what does not begin now cannot finish later.
CMHC · Jul 2026
CMHC · Jul 2026
Trade-policy uncertainty is climbing while global risk stays calm
Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index
Tailwind144
Global risk is close to its recent normal
No global shock is currently adding to construction costs or currency pressure.
Caldara–Iacoviello GPR index, via FRED · Aug 2026
Trade Policy Uncertainty Index
Headwind200
Trade-policy uncertainty is climbing
Tariff and trade-rule uncertainty raises the cost of imported construction materials.
Trade Policy Uncertainty index · May 2026
Both indexes are built from newspaper coverage — they measure attention to risk, not prices paid.
A cut of this size would lower a typical payment
If the Bank moved its rate
Pick a move to see it on an illustrative mortgage.
On a $500,000 mortgage, about $61 less a month. An illustration, not a lender quote. Your rate depends on your lender, your term and your circumstances.
Next releases — when this page changes
- Interest rate decisionBank of CanadaSep 2, 2026
- Labour Force SurveyStatistics Canada · covers Aug 2026Sep 4, 2026approximate
- Consumer Price IndexStatistics Canada · covers Aug 2026Sep 15, 2026approximate
- Housing startsCMHC · covers Aug 2026Sep 16, 2026approximate
Every figure above updates when its agency publishes. Approximate dates follow each agency’s usual cadence.
How this page is built
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These are public economic series, shown on their own. They are not local sales statistics and they do not reinterpret the market report — that lives on Market Insights.
Figures are published by Statistics Canada, CMHC and the Bank of Canada, delivered through ODIN, and captured on a fixed schedule. Nothing on this page is generated when you load it: each headline is written in advance for the state the data is in.
The two trade and policy indexes are the Caldara–Iacoviello geopolitical-risk and trade-policy uncertainty series, distributed by FRED.
Latest ODIN observation: Aug 2026. Individual series dates are shown beside each figure.